COVID-19 IMPACT: Analysis shows social distancing cuts infections worldwide

NEWS RELEASE: Michael Miller, Public Information Officer (Edited for Loveland Beacon by Chuck Gibson) 

CINCINNATI, OH (April 14, 2020) – University of Cincinnati projections through May 10 suggest coronavirus infections could increase in urban parts of Ohio.

Diego Cuadros, assistant professor of geography in UC’s College of Arts and Sciences, released a new map of infection risk for Ohio’s 88 counties that shows the wide disparity between urban and rural areas. People living in many rural counties, particularly in southern Ohio, face as much as four times less risk of infection as those in larger cities and their suburbs.

“It’s not a single national epidemic. We’re seeing outbreaks,” Cuadros said.

Even so, the UC projections suggest that about half of Ohio’s 88 counties will see 200 or more infections by May 10. And a dozen counties in Ohio will see more than 1,000 cases each by May 10, according to UC projections.

Source: UC Health Geography and Disease Modeling Lab

Meanwhile, UC’s Health Geography and Disease Modeling Lab found that social distancing measures enacted around the world have significantly reduced the spread of coronavirus.

The analysis found that testing, closures, stay-at-home orders and other social-distancing measures cut the expected growth rate of the epidemic in places like Italy, Iceland and South Korea.

UC created projections for COVID-19 infections with and without interventions such as widespread testing and social distancing. The analysis found that some countries were able to stem the spread by as much as 85 percent.

“It shows that intervention is working. Social distancing is working,” Cuadros said.

A map depicting the risk of infection for COVID-19 shows the disproportionate impact of the pandemic in Ohio.(Provided) 

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